Nature of Science - Uncertainty and Bias

Science is modeling, we covered that. The question now is how do we figure out what is a ‘good’ model, how do we evaluate our models?

In science you have heard the terms ‘theory’ and ‘law’. Examples are ‘Theory of Relativity’ and ‘Newton’s 2nd Law’. In your lab notebook, explain what you think the difference between a theory and a law is. Provide examples if possible.

Table of contents

1. Uncertainty in Science
   1. Italian Flag Analysis
   2. Example - Black Box
   3. Activity - Beads in the box
2. Bank Statements Activity
   1. Procedure
   2. Discussion - Answer in your lab notebook
3. Bias in Science
   1. Gaps in Science
4. Exit Ticket and Reflection
5. References
6. Prep
7. Notes for Revision

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Uncertainty in Science

Here is the short version, in science NO model is perfect. There are two main reasons for this:

• We cannot collect enough information to prove with absolute certainty something
• Scientists assume that they do not and cannot know everything (the word for this is humble)

Uncertainty covers both reasons. The question then is, how do we account for uncertainty?

Italian Flag Analysis

This is the Italian flag:

It has a green, white, and red strip. This is a great way to analyze models. Green is evidence for the model, red is evidence against the model, and the white is for things we do not know (uncertain about).

Example - Black Box

Think back to the black box activity ,if you were not here or do not remember, watch this video.

I’m going to use the model: There are four ropes tied together inside. Then I’m going to make my Italian flag.

Now, we have to reasons for, one against, and two reasons that make us uncertain. Can we say that our model is correct or incorrect? OR do we need to say that we are uncertain if our model is correct?

In science it is perfectly fine to say that you do not know. By laying out your reasons clearly you can then figure out what you need to do next. In this example, we need to find a way to incorporate or explain the differences and resistance either using our model, or making a new one. And we might try hitting different things on the tube to see what makes a simlar sound to when we shake it.

Activity - Beads in the box

Practice using the Italian flag analysis. Look at the picture below and come up with a answer for how many beads are in the box and…

In your lab notebook make an Italian flag analysis of your answer to ‘how many beads are in the box?’ Work in groups, share ideas with each other to fill out your flag.

Bank Statements Activity

Time to play detective. Your group will receive an envelop of bank statements. Each bank statement has a some of the places, and amounts, that some un-known people spent. Your mission, is to come up with a theory for what is going on in these peoples lives.

Procedure

There are three rounds. Each round you will pull some bank statements out of the envelope at random. You will then come up with or revise your theory for what is happening to these people. You will then do an Italian flag analysis of your theory using your bank statements.

• 1st round - pull out 3 statements
• 2nd round - pull out 2 statements
• 3rd round - pull out 2 statements

Discussion - Answer in your lab notebook

• How did your theories change over the three rounds?
• How certain are you of your theory? (look at your Italian flags)
• How does your theory compare to other groups that have the same set of statements?

Bias in Science

Bias is how you interpret things differently than other people. Bias happens because everyone has different experiences that shape their understanding of the world around them.

In your lab notebook compare how you think bias played a part in the different theories groups came up with.

Now let us look at bias in science. Close your eyes and think of a scientist, describe the person you see in your lab notebook.

Finish this sentence in your lab notebook: When I think of a scientist I picture …

Now examine the bias’s your imaginary scientist has.

List 5 things that you think matter to your scientist, list 5 things that matter to YOU.

I challange you to look at the posterboard that is next to the bathrooms between rooms 249 and 238.

Gaps in Science

There are two big problems with science.

• English is the language of science, most research that is not written in english, is unknown to the rest of the world.
• Historically, most science in English was done and written by white males.

This means that there is a big bias in science towards the concerns of english-speaking white males. An example is medicine. Most medicines are designed for, and only tested on white males. How it effects women and people of non-Caucasian races, we usually don’t know.

List 5 things matter to YOU that you have never heard of any research being done on, think of medicine, social problems, regional problems, etc.

Exit Ticket and Reflection

On the sticky note provided, answer the following and post it on the board as you leave.

What is one way that your unique view is important to this class.

Reflection in your lab notebook.

Make a list in your lab notebook of 10 things that make up who you are and create the bias you see the world. Considering those 10 things, if you could research anything in the world, what would it be and why?

References

• Hubenthal, Michael, and Mike Gallagher. “NSTA 2019.” NSTA, Accounting for Uncertainty in Scientific Argumentation, 2019.

Prep

• Bank statements envelopes

Notes for Revision

• Change the observation, inference to the observe, explain, test, loop. It is easier to explain and there is no reason to teach new/big words.